792
FXUS61 KBGM 030547
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2) RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE MUCH COLDER
AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND SKIES CLEAR. PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT, BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF SHORTY AFTER SUNRISE. NORTHWEST FLOW
HAS ALSO USHERED COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINING DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE SHIFT IN FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO FEATURES MOVING EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ONE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA
AND THE OTHER TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR AREA
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PHASE WELL EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, GENERATING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT
WILL TRACK INTO CANADA. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL NOT DEVELOP SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY, USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB NEAR 0C
COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS, WHILE
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 50S WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, NEPA AND
CATSKILLS, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
FREEZING, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN,
BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY CONDITIONS AT ELM IF
WINDS WEAKEN ENOUGH, ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS TODAY.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH VALLEY FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ELM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WENDESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH VALLEY FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM EARLY SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...SJW
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