419
FXUS61 KBGM 031803
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ADJUSTED FOR SUNDAY AS CAMS PRECIP ONSET
SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN GLOBAL MODELS. FROST INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
2) SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A
WONDERFUL SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PLEASANT TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING BY SUNDOWN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK
TO THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUNDAY WILL SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM 2 DIFFERENT SYSTEMS RIDING
ONE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SITTING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, GENERATING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA INTO THE CATSKILLS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO START BY MID-MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW
TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO THAT WILL PUSH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THAT COULD KICK OFF SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL BE FROM A THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF S ONEIDA COUNTY INTO
MADISON AND E ONONDAGA. THESE SHOWERS COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST CUTS THEM OFF.
TEMPERATURES DURING NEXT WEEK ARE GOING TO START OFF COOL AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FUNNELS COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
REGION. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S MONDAY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
50S FOR MOST WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF NEPA.
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS COOL AS
WE EXPECT THEM TO DEVELOP ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY THANKS TO
COLD AIR AT 850MB RUNNING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE AMERICA
AND THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO
MID 30S EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH PORTIONS OF CNY HAVE ENDED THE
GROWING SEASON, FROST WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THESE TWO NIGHTS WILL COULD SEE THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROSTS OF THE FALL SEASON. A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND BRING A
WARMER, MORE MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY), WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
FIRST, VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KELM, WHICH WILL
BRING IFR-OR-WORSE VISBY RESTRICTIONS. THE EXTENT/DURATION OF
THIS FOG IS A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH, AS HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT KELM AND KAVP BY SUNDAY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR TO FUEL
ALTERNATE CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BJG
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