017
FXUS61 KBGM 040607
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ADJUSTED MONDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THIS MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
2) MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS BEFORE WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A SECOND WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO NORTH CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN ALLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIR MASS. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES C, HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S,
WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
FROST HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THESE
TWO NIGHTS POTENTIALLY BRINING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE
FALL SEASON. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
RETURN AND USHER IN WARMER MORE MOIST AIR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY, EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR TO LIFR VSBYS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AT ELM. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING BASES THROUGH THE
MORNING WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS THAT WILL REACH LOWER END VFR
TO UPPER END MVFR BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TODAY. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AVP THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO MAINLY VFR
FOR THE NY TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MVFR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AVP. THIS IS DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF A PASSING SFC LOW TO AVP. CLOUDS WILL BE QUICKER TO
GO VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, WHILE ELM/ITH/BGM TAKING A
BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING AS THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH THE LOWER
CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST. CIGS WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
TOWARD IFR BRIEFLY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS) DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SOME LAKE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE REDUCTIONS TO NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...SJW
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