939
FXUS61 KBGM 041752
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ADJUSTED MONDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THIS MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
2) MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS BEFORE WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A SECOND WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO NORTH CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN ALLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIR MASS. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES C, HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S,
WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
FROST HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THESE
TWO NIGHTS POTENTIALLY BRINING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE
FALL SEASON. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
RETURN AND USHER IN WARMER MORE MOIST AIR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW ELEVATED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, MAINLY AT ELM, BGM, AND AVP. TONIGHT,
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH INCREASING W TO NW WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG MAY FORM BRIEFLY AT ELM BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS SPEEDING UP, NO FOG WAS INCLUDED IN THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH LOWERING CONFIDENCE.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW A MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT SO A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN
SYR AND RME, WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. AVP
WILL HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE.
TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY REMAINING CLOUDS QUICKLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WITH VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THERE AFTER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, LOW CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT SYR, RME OR ITH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...AJG/SJW
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