744
FXUS61 KBGM 050624
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ADJUSTED FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FROST AND LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A COOL AND MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY. COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS AN END TO
PRECIPITATION. WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S IN NORTHEAST PA. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SKIES CLEAR, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING, WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD
LATER TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD KEEP WINDS ELEVATED A LITTLE
LONGER AND LIMIT FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. IF THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARDS MORE QUICKLY, FROST COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH
SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS POTENTIALLY REACHING FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, BRINING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TURN COLD AGAIN, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LOWS COULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
30S TO THE LOW 40S, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS
WHICH COULD FAVOR COOLER CONDITIONS. WARMER AIR RETURNS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK PASSING WAVE MAY
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ARE CAUSING IFR
TO LIFR ISSUES AT TIMES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST
OF THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME RESTRICTIONS
WITH VSBY AND/OR CIGS. THE WORST FLIGHT CATS WILL BE WITH THE
FAVORABLE FOG AREAS AND WITH HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LOWER CIGS
WILL BE LIKELY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING ANY FOG
TO DISSIPATE. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL MIX OUT THE LOWEST
LEVEL MOISTURE, ALLOWING CIGS TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/LIFR TO MVFR
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TODAY TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK.
SOME LOWER LEVEL VFR LAKE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR SYR/RME INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A 35-40 KT LLJ OVER THE REGION.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR, SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY BRING CIGS CLOSE TO
MVFR. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND CLOUDS TO PREVENT ANY FOG
FOR THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
FOG AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...SJW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page