404
FXUS61 KBGM 052308
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
708 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL BELOW OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LESS OF A RISK FOR FROST IN THE
AREAS STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BLUSTERY WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A DRY AND
COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM CANADA. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRADFORD, WYOMING AND
LACKAWANNA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA.
2) FAIRLY QUIET REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK TROUGH MID-WEEK
FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING
20-35MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST, BUT A FEW POP UP LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB
ADVERTISING THESE WINDS, AS MOST MODELS TOPPED OUT AROUND 25 MPH
OR SO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE
MIXING DOWN SOME VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE, WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN A FEW 30
DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL WE HAVE
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THAT WOULD ALLOW FROST TO
DEVELOP OR NOT. IF THE HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD FASTER THAN
EXPECTED, WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKER AND ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE EFFECT FASTER, BRINGING FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD KEEPS WINDS ACTIVE AND
LIMITS FROST TO SHELTERED LOCATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN UP ENOUGH OVER BRADFORD, WYOMING AND SUSQUEHANNA
COUNTIES(CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON) THAT WE WILL HAVE A
FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT WHERE WE COULD GET WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION. BECAUSE OF THIS, A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 1AM TO 9AM.
OUR OTHER GROWING ZONES; YATES, SENECA, SOUTHERN CAYUGA AND
ONONDAGA COUNTIES IN NY SHOULD MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE FROST
WITH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE
NW WINDS COULD ALSO MOVE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OFF THE WARM WATERS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE AMERICA INTO SURROUNDING AREAS,
HELPING MITIGATE FROST. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN A
LITTLE QUICKER, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOP ACROSS
SHELTERED AREAS. IF YOUR LOCATION FROSTS EASILY, TAKE THE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S AND CONTINUED NW WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO MOVE EAST OF US BY THE
EVENING HOURS, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN IN THE EVENING
HOURS. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR ONE MORE NIGHT
MOSTLY EAST OF I-81 WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED.
TO THE WEST OF I-81 ONTO THE WYOMING VALLEY, WAA SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES HERE IN THE LOW
40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM WED AND THURS WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FRI AND SAT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WINDS LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY
DYING OFF WILL PREVENT FOG FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ELM MAY STILL
GO CALM AND FOG AROUND SUNRISE GIVEN HOW LONG THE NIGHTS ARE NOW
AND STILL WARMER RIVER WATERS. TOMORROW IS LOOKING VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ038-039-
043.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...KL
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