295
FXUS61 KBGM 060615
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF I-81 WITH FROST POTENTIAL.
2) FAIRLY QUIET REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK TROUGH MID-WEEK
FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BRADFORD, SUSQUEHANNA, AND WYOMING COUNTIES, WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER AND SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED. ELSEWHERE, CLOUD COVER
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE AMERICA
AND LINGERING WIND GUESTS HELPING TO MITIGATE FROST FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY, BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY, GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING NEAR FREEZING. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR
ONE MORE NIGHT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-81, WHERE WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER WEST AND INTO THE
WYOMING VALLEY, CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY QUIET AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED THROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, THOUGH
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY AIR AND ELEVATED WINDS LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY DYING OFF WILL
PREVENT FOG FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. ELM MAY STILL GO CALM
AND FOG AROUND SUNRISE GIVEN HOW LONG THE NIGHTS ARE NOW AND
STILL WARMER RIVER WATERS.
TODAY, VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ELM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
AMONG GUIDANCE FOR FOG THAT WILL CAUSE FLIGHT REDUCTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038-039-043.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...KL/SJW
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