216
FXUS61 KBGM 062336
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
736 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE IS
NOT HANDLING THEM WELL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED, WITH A RISK FOR FROST EAST OF I-81.
2) FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH
BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT
SUNNY SKIES AND NW WINDS THAT ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH COOL, DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE MIXING DRY AIR
TO THE SURFACE, WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND INCREASE
WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND
10PM. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM FORMING MOSTLY WEST OF I-81.
EAST OF I-81, THE HIGH SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO GENERATE
AREAS OF FROST. WITH PA STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON, A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUSQUEHANNA, WAYNE AND PIKE
COUNTIES FROM 11PM TONIGHT TO 9AM. THE WYOMING VALLEY LOOKS TO
BE TOO WARM WITH SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWING A NEAR 0%
CHANCE OF TEMPS FALLING FAR ENOUGH FOR FROST TO FORM. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY AND TO THE NW INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY COULD SEE PATCHY FROST DEVELOP ACROSS SHELTERED AREAS.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOSTLY WARM AND PRETTY QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ONLY WEATHERMAKER WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, DROPPING LOWS INTO THE LOW 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED WED, THURS, SAT AND SUN.
WE ARE MONITORING A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
AMERICA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
MONDAY. THIS IS A COMPLICATED SETUP WITH A HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA, A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW, AND 2 TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE SW US IMPACTING
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF ANYTHING COMING OUT OF THE GULF. WITH
ALL OF THESE FACTORS, THE FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN HOPEFULLY MODELS HAVE RESOLVED HOW
SOME OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM TONIGHT GIVING A BRIEF
WINDOW TO ELM, THOUGH WITH HOW DRY IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
MINIMUM DEWPOINT OF 28, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY
VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE, MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ039-040-048-072.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...KL
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