167
FXUS61 KBGM 071749
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTHEAST PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS MORNING'S OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE LOWERED AREAWIDE BASED
ON THE LATEST TRENDS. INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY,
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE INCREASING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
2)DRY WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
3) WATCHING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL HEADING
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM (TD-9)
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
IT WILL BE STARTING OFF QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FROST AROUND. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO 30S FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH LOW 40S ACROSS THE HILLTOPS. FROST
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST PA;
WHILE THE URBAN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SCRANTON AND WILKES-BARRE MAY
NOT SEE FROST, IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL. THERE
COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE COLDER POCKETS SURROUNDING
THE FINGER LAKES, BUT COVERAGE IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE
AROUND THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO
THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AROUND ACROSS THE SYRACUSE METRO TO I-90 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OFF OF LAKE AMERICA IN
THE COOL WESTERLY FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND +4C ON
THURSDAY, GIVING ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS
COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID-40S TO LOW
50S. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
AS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ANTICIPATED UP TO THE 800MB LEVEL.
WINDS WERE INCREASED FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, AND SURFACE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (25-30 MPH).
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY, WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TD-9, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
REMNANTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA, LIKELY SOMETIME
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON EXACT SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND SPEED. THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INCREASING POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY AND EVEN
CATEGORICAL RANGE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS PWATS POTENTIAL
SURGE OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY). THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO IMPACT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT. A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND KRME
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 09Z THURSDAY, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND NOT RESULT IN ANY RESTRICTIONS.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER (5KTS OR LESS)
TONIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALSO, LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT KELM, KITH, AND KBGM. BRIEF LLWS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND/OR KRME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THOSE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR
AND KRME. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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