968
FXUS61 KBGM 071848
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
2) SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH SOME
REMNANT MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ZONAL FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH SEVERAL WEAK 500 MB
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE, ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY,
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A BIT OF CAPE TO HAVE
DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
ISOLATED, A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LOW RISK OF
A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
WITH BREEZY AND WARM AFTERNOON CONDITIONS, AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY PAST THEIR LEAF PEAK WITH DRY LEAF LITTER ON THE GROUND
WILL HAVE A HIGHER RISK OF FIRE SPREAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE RAINFALL IS LOOKING LIKELY,
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE 250 MB JET WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SO A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT IS VERY
UNLIKELY. STILL SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE
IN LATE THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLES RANGE FROM A
WIDESPREAD QUARTER INCH (25TH PERCENTILE) TO 1 INCH (75TH
PERCENTILE). THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TAIL ON THE HIGH END, WITH
THE 95TH PERCENTILE BELOW 2 INCHES OF RAIN, THOUGH SOME POCKETS
OF HIGHER VALUES ARE IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS OVER 2 INCHES.
ONCE THIS REMNANT IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FILTER IN AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY). THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO IMPACT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT. A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND KRME
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 09Z THURSDAY, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND NOT RESULT IN ANY RESTRICTIONS.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER (5KTS OR LESS)
TONIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALSO, LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT KELM, KITH, AND KBGM. BRIEF LLWS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND/OR KRME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THOSE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR
AND KRME. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG
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