340
FXUS61 KBGM 172340
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THIS
SEASON IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ONLY ACTIVE
GROWING SEASON COUNTIES ARE LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA, SO A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THEM THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP WELL OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TOMORROW AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO POSE NO IMPACTS AT
ALL FOR OUR AREA AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE TRACK FURTHER OUT
TO SEA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STIFF ARMING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND KEEPS IT OFF THE COAST. GRADUAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES GET BACK
TO OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE AFTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
ALSO, THIS PATTERN IS PERFECT FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY). THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FREEZING FOG/MIST AT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF THERE FOR NOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION.
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SEEING FOG/FREEZING FOG, IT MAY BE
ADDED IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCE. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS THAT
FILTER IN FROM SE ONTARIO WHERE CURRENT CLOUD BASES OF 3-10K FT
ARE IN PLACE. GUIDANCE ISN'T FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH PLACEMENT VS
PRESENT OBS THIS EVENING, SO SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT
TO THE NORTHERN & WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. BY THE TIME ANY OF THESE CLOUDS MAKE IT TO ANY OF THE
CNY TERMINALS THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY FEW TO SCT WITH DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION ERODING WHAT IS LEFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. MORNING
FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/SJW
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