228
FXUS61 KBGM 180224
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THIS
SEASON IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ONLY ACTIVE
GROWING SEASON COUNTIES ARE LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA, SO A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THEM THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP WELL OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TOMORROW AND REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO POSE NO IMPACTS AT
ALL FOR OUR AREA AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE TRACK FURTHER OUT
TO SEA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STIFF ARMING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND KEEPS IT OFF THE COAST. GRADUAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES GET BACK
TO OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE AFTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
ALSO, THIS PATTERN IS PERFECT FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY). THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FREEZING FOG/MIST AT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF AS A TEMPO. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION, HOWEVER
CURRENT TDD VALUES ARE 3F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. MORNING
FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/SJW
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