289
FXUS61 KBGM 180454
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1254 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION ALL THIS WEEK. WHILE A
COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND LINGERS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING INLAND ENOUGH
TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. IN FACT, THE WPC DAYS 1-7
QPF HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA AND FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
THE EASTERN US. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER STARTING TODAY
AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD AIRMASS DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THAT
COLDER AIR WILL EXTEND. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EACH NIGHT, CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY). THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FREEZING FOG/MIST AT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF AS A TEMPO. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION, HOWEVER
CURRENT TDD VALUES ARE 3F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. MORNING
FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BJG/SJW
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