061
FXUS61 KBGM 190515
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
115 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALL WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. UNDER WHICH, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S, THOUGH 70 MAY BE
WITHIN REACH FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
FAVOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
20S TO 30S ACROSS THE REGION. TERRAIN WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW
WARM OR COLD A LOCATION WILL GET. FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TERRAIN WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NBM GUIDANCE AS NBM WAS LOW YESTERDAY. THEN FOR TONIGHT, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER ANOTHER SHARP INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE,
SO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME COOLER THAN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SIMILARLY TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE MOST NIGHTS.
AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE CONSECUTIVE WARM, DRY DAYS, WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE UPCOMING WEEK(S) FOR FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP BELOW 30% DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST DAYS. WINDS DO PICK UP DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE CALMING BY THE WEEKEND. AS LEAVES
CONTINUE TO FALL, THE INCREASED LEAF LITTER CAN BE FUEL FOR ANY FIRE
THAT IGNITES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES BUT
KELM. AT KELM, STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...MWG
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