366
FXUS61 KBGM 201713
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
113 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY, WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A NOR'EASTER ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND
MUCH INLAND, THOUGH WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST MODELS HAVE IT RUNNING OUT OF MOISTURE BY THE TIME
IT ENTERS THE REGION, BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW WITH SHOWING MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES AT AROUND 60% IN
THE ECMWF, MOISTURE IS EVEN LIMITED WITH THAT SOLUTION. IF ANYTHING
CAN DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME, IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT. A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AS NEEDED OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST UPDATES, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. SUNNY SKIES HAVE LED TO TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE WHAT MOST GUIDANCE HAD. MEANWHILE, THESE CLEAR SKIES
HAVE THEN LED TO TEMPERATURES TANKING AT NIGHT WHILE AN INVERSION
HAS KEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MORE MILD. DURING PEAK HEATING,
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
OFTEN BEEN TOO HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. HOWEVER, FOG CHANCES TONIGHT AT ELM ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT'S AND IFR FOG IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY THERE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP, EXPECT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 13 TO 14Z AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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