042
FXUS61 KBGM 220421
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1221 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT VALUES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AND COOL
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FEW CHANGES OVERALL TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH NO
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER ISSUE TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT IS A TYPICAL MODEL HIGH BIAS OF AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THIS PATTERN, RGEM MODEL NOT AS BIASED HERE. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
ALSO LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WITH TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY WITH TEMPORARY IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT
ELM. THE TIMING FOR RESTRICTIONS THERE IS BASED OFF OF
PERSISTENCE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BREAKING AROUND 13Z.
A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW CAN
LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES
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