581
FXUS61 KBGM 221046
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT VALUES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AND COOL
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FEW CHANGES OVERALL TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH NO
MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER ISSUE TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT IS A TYPICAL MODEL HIGH BIAS OF AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THIS PATTERN, RGEM MODEL NOT AS BIASED HERE. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
ALSO LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTH THAT COULD
LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELM MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
IN THE EVENING THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLEARING HERE COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND IFR RESTRICTIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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