216
FXUS61 KBGM 221744
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AND COOL
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE FRONT ONLY
PRODUCING INCREASED CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STORM OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE OTHER ISSUE TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT IS A TYPICAL MODEL HIGH BIAS OF AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THIS PATTERN, RGEM MODEL NOT AS BIASED HERE, SO
BLENDED THAT IN THROUGH SUNDAY.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ALSO LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. THE PATTERN OVERALL
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS DRY OR WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTH THAT COULD
LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND
15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELM, WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP, RESULTING IN IFR
RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG/SJW
AVIATION...KL
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