450
FXUS61 KBGM 240524
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND DRY. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH BRIEF COOL PERIODS TO FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE BLUE LETTER H WILL STAY ON THE WEATHER MAPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1034
MILLIBARS. THERMODYNAMICALLY, THE DAYS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE EXCEPTION COMES AROUND MIDWEEK,
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
50S AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY. AT NIGHT,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES, SO LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS MORE MILD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
HYDROLOGICALLY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR ANOTHER
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL DRY OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION THOUGH SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
SPRINKLES OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TUG HILL AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THOUGH, SO
POPS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE BETTER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT EVEN THEN, IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A GUARANTEE. A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO WILL
PASS THROUGH. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT WHILE
OTHERS DO NOT. THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT, IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER
AIR AND SHOWERS FALL APART, SIMILAR TO THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY). THE ONE EXCEPTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
AT KELM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG LIKELY RESULTING IN
VLIFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG TO REACH KITH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS
SET OF TAFS. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z, RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BJG
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