404
FXUS61 KBGM 241717
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
117 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERSISTENT DRY AND MILD PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST WEEK WILL
LIKELY REMAIN STEADFAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH AND WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SE US, OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE AWAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS MAKE THEIR WAY UNDER THE RIDGE THIS WEEK. THE FIRST ONE IS
MONDAY, WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE WINDS, FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE FRONT BUT SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WERE KEPT BELOW 15%. NEXT FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO COME THROUGH TILL
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH ALSO A SIMILAR STORY, SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS BRIEFLY.
WITH THIS DRY PATTERN AND A COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS WITH DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND NOW MOST OF THE LEAVES ARE OFF THE TREES, FIRE
DANGER IS INCREASING. WITH CONTINUED DRYING IT WILL BECOME EASIER
FOR FIRES TO SPREAD. LUCKILY EVEN ON OUR WINDIEST DAYS THIS WEEK,
PEAK DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AROUND 20
MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. IFR/LIFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND, SO THIS FORECAST IS LEANING TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AS THE FOG LINGERED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BTL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page