253
FXUS64 KBMX 150452
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1052 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
THIS EVENING ON SATELLITE, A SWATH OF POST FRONT WRAP AROUND
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SWING S AND E ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT,
GENERALLY OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE STAYING UP
HERE AND THERE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. NW-NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS USHERING IN
COLDER AIR INTO AL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO GO DOWN INTO
THE 40S FOR MORNING LOWS.
08
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW,
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, AS CLOUD COVER HAS
LARGELY CLEARED THE AREA AND RECENT RAINFALL HAS LED TO SATURATED
GROUNDS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS
AS A RESULT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW, AND IF THE WINDS WILL CALM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
HUN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE, AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE UPPER
TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE SFC
LOW OCCLUDING WELL BEFORE THE SYSTEM NEARS OUR AREA, DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY AND
LOWS INTO THE 40S.
HUN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
RIDGING, BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO EJECT OUT OF A BIG LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THESE IMPULSES WILL
FLATTEN OUR RIDGE A BIT, AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK UP. 00Z
COMPUTER MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW A SURFACE FRONT ARRIVING HERE ON
TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH, BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO CAUSE SOME SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.
COMPUTER MODEL BLEND GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE SOME COLD WEATHER
IS COMING AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF SAID COLD IS
STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
ALL TAF SITES ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SWATH OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BY WAY OF
STRATUS CLOUDS ~2-6KFT TO OUR N THAT WILL SAG/SWING SEWD TONIGHT.
LOWER IFR CIGS ARE OVER GA BUT THOSE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT C
AL TAF SITES ATTM. CURRENTLY THE TAFS ARE VFR, BUT CIGS ARE
CLOSING IN ON BHM TO SCRAPE THEM. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH
PROGRESS THIS AREA MAKES ELSEWHERE. HAVE AN MVFR MENTION FOR BHM
FOR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE AREA SWINGS THROUGH. NW-NNW WINDS
ARE STAYING UP SOME AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD NOT BE GUSTY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FOR ANY POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS IF WINDS CALM AND/OR FOG
DEVELOPS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY BELOW
5-7MPH. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 44 65 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 64 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 46 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 47 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 46 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 46 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08/HUN
LONG TERM....HUN/61
AVIATION...08
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