684
FXUS64 KBMX 151728
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTH AND THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TO OUR EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BURN OFF AROUND 9 AM. SO LOOK FOR DECREASING
CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS, OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHS IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
THE ARKLATEX AREA TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR TO FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME OF THE
COOLER LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE 35 TO 36 DEGREE MARK IN THE
NORTH, SO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FROST MAY BE APPARENT ON ROOFTOPS
AND CAR WINDSHIELDS. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME FOR A FROST ADVISORY. AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBILITY. NOT ENOUGH DROP ACROSS THE AREA TO WARRANT A FOG
ADVISORY, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. IF WE GET THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THAN EXPECT AND MORE WIDESPREAD THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH FAIR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.
16
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FIRST DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES, AND THEN
LIFT AND SWING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS ALABAMA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FURTHER BREAK DOWN OUR UPPER
RIDGE AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
AND THERE'S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (DEPENDS ON
THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE, AND THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE BRISK MOSTLY CLOUDY DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FAR NORTHEAST
BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND NORTH OF ANB, BUT THIS SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT MORE BY MID
AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07Z TO 11Z FRIDAY MORNING
BUT THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREAWIDE UNDER FAIR
SKIES.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY BETWEEN
5-7 MPH. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 63 38 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 63 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 66 42 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 64 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 65 43 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 69 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 69 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05
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