004
FXUS64 KBMX 151834
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE COUNTRY AGAIN TODAY WITH
TROUGHING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE BROAD
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE SURFACE,
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. VERY DRY
AIR WAS SAMPLED JUST ABOVE 920 MB IN THE FORM OF A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PER THE 15/12Z BMX SOUNDING. BENEATH THAT
LAYER, ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS PERSISTED TO SUPPORT SOME LOWER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING,
BUT THE SLUG OF VERY DRY AIR IS MIXING INTO THAT MOIST LAYER AND
RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THESE AREAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
A SMALL EXCEPTION FOR AREAS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WHERE A FEW MORE CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
AT 5-10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH.
TONIGHT.
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT,
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MORE MOIST DUE TO
RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 2-5 MPH. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL NEAR WATER FEATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF FROST IN
THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WHERE LOWS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 30S, OTHERWISE,
READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AND THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY.
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST ON AREAWIDE SATURDAY WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS FROM 4-8 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
05
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FIRST DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES, AND THEN
LIFT AND SWING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS ALABAMA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FURTHER BREAK DOWN OUR UPPER
RIDGE AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
AND THERE'S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (DEPENDS ON
THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE, AND THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE BRISK MOSTLY CLOUDY DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FAR NORTHEAST
BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND NORTH OF ANB, BUT THIS SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT MORE BY MID
AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07Z TO 11Z FRIDAY MORNING
BUT THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREAWIDE UNDER FAIR
SKIES.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY BETWEEN
5-7 MPH. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 37 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 38 69 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 41 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 42 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 41 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 43 70 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 42 73 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 42 73 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05
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