157
FXUS64 KBMX 160459
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1059 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THIS EVENING ON SATELLITE, A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS NOTED WITH
SURFACE RIDGING OVER E CONUS. WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR
CALM. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH LINGERING
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS AS TEMPS FALL CLOSER TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE DEW POINTS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
TEMP/DEW POINTS BASED ON OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.
08
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE COUNTRY AGAIN TODAY WITH
TROUGHING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE BROAD
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE SURFACE,
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. VERY DRY
AIR WAS SAMPLED JUST ABOVE 920 MB IN THE FORM OF A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PER THE 15/12Z BMX SOUNDING. BENEATH THAT
LAYER, ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS PERSISTED TO SUPPORT SOME LOWER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING,
BUT THE SLUG OF VERY DRY AIR IS MIXING INTO THAT MOIST LAYER AND
RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THESE AREAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
A SMALL EXCEPTION FOR AREAS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WHERE A FEW MORE CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
AT 5-10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH.
TONIGHT.
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT,
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MORE MOIST DUE TO
RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 2-5 MPH. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL NEAR WATER FEATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF FROST IN
THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT WHERE LOWS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 30S, OTHERWISE,
READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AND THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY.
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST ON AREAWIDE SATURDAY WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS FROM 4-8 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
05
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, MOVING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THAT TIME. WHILE THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES, MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE, BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
THESE TWO DAYS, REACHING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE EAST
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MS RIVER VALLEY, APPROACHING WESTERN AL BY MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL JET MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE, APPROACHING MAX
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW VARIATIONS IN WHETHER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING VERSUS TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS DO DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH RAIN AND COVERAGE OCCURS OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS TAKES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF, TAKING
MOST OF THE RAIN AND ENERGY TOWARDS THE COAST AND LEAVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE, WITH LIGHTER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF.
AND THEN OTHER SOLUTIONS, LIKE ECMWF SHOW SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
STATE, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION, SHOWING A PROGRESSION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MONDAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST,
INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND LIGHT SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL BE ABLE TO PINPOINT TIMING BETTER AS
TUESDAY APPROACHES.
THE LOW PRESSURE BRINGING THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE STATE, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TONIGHT THERE IS A SURFACE RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS E CONUS.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLEAR SKY ACROSS C AL AND LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM WINDS/P6SM VSBY ON MOST OBS. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME
ISOLATED GROUND FOG NEAR ANB. AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE AND COOL
TOWARD OUR DEW POINTS, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
HAVE MVFR TEMPO MENTIONS IN TAFS STARTING ~10-11Z GOING THROUGH
14Z. WENT LOWER AT ANB STARTING AT MVFR WITH A TEMPO TO IFR.
OTHERWISE AFTER THAT, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20 FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-7 MPH. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN
THE UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 38 67 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 38 69 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 41 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 42 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 41 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 43 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 42 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 42 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08/05
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...08
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