532
FXUS64 KBMX 160855
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
255 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST,
AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNSET ON SUNDAY.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING, AS
THE GROUND MOISTURE REMAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO INTO THEW UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS MORNING
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY MORNING.
16
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE TO OUR WEST DUE
TO A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, STRONGEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ACCELERATING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS LOOK MEAGER, AND I DON'T EXPECT MUCH THUNDER THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. IN FACT, FORCING/DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL DEFLECT TO OUR
NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE, AND BETTER FOCUS FOR ANY DEEPER CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE CLINGING CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE LLJ WILL
FEED AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY (500-1,000 J/KG).
NONETHELESS, THIS WILL BE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT
NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A NOTABLE DIP IN THE POLAR JET IS
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION IS DEPICTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A BOWLING BALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM, AND THE ASSOCIATED POLAR AIRMASS, WILL
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TONIGHT THERE IS A SURFACE RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS E CONUS.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLEAR SKY ACROSS C AL AND LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM WINDS/P6SM VSBY ON MOST OBS. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME
ISOLATED GROUND FOG NEAR ANB. AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE AND COOL
TOWARD OUR DEW POINTS, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
HAVE MVFR TEMPO MENTIONS IN TAFS STARTING ~10-11Z GOING THROUGH
14Z. WENT LOWER AT ANB STARTING AT MVFR WITH A TEMPO TO IFR.
OTHERWISE AFTER THAT, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20 FT WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-7 MPH.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY. WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 40 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 69 43 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 46 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 71 46 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 70 47 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 70 47 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 73 45 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 73 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION...08
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