872
FXUS64 KBMX 161815
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.
ELONGATED EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WAS SAMPLED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ON THE 16/12Z BMX
SOUNDING WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.27 INCHES. A
LARGE RADIATION INVERSION WAS MEASURED OFF THE SURFACE BENEATH AN
EXTENSIVE SLUG OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTHEAST TO READINGS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT.
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME POSITIONED JUST EAST OF
THE AREA, EXTENDING FROM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO OVER
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO NEAR THE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BORDER.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH GEORGIA WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WATER FEATURES BEFORE SUNRISE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 2-4 MPH. A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF FROST WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S, OTHERWISE
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH
AND WEST.
SUNDAY.
LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WHILE A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST, EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO START THE DAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
6-12 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 FAR NORTH TO
THE MID 70S SOUTH.
05
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE TO OUR WEST DUE
TO A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, STRONGEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ACCELERATING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS LOOK MEAGER, AND I DON'T EXPECT MUCH THUNDER THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. IN FACT, FORCING/DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL DEFLECT TO OUR
NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE, AND BETTER FOCUS FOR ANY DEEPER CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE CLINGING CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE LLJ WILL
FEED AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY (500-1,000 J/KG).
NONETHELESS, THIS WILL BE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT
NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A NOTABLE DIP IN THE POLAR JET IS
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION IS DEPICTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A BOWLING BALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM, AND THE ASSOCIATED POLAR AIRMASS, WILL
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. EXPECT ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4-8 KTS TODAY AND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT 1-3 KTS. SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WATER
FEATURES BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY BUT THIS CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT ANY LOCATION. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10
KTS.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20
FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY BETWEEN
5-7 MPH. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 38 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 70 41 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 45 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 70 45 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 70 42 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 70 45 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 73 43 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 73 43 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...05
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