761
FXUS64 KBMX 170843
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
243 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICKING UP WE WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH DAY.
REALLY THE ONLY CLOUD COVER WE HAVE TODAY WILL BE CIRRUS THAT WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT ISENTROPIC FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND
WILL NEED TO SEE ANOTHER RUN UNTIL POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND
MONITOR THE TRENDS.
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TUESDAY WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER-WISE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT, BOTH GENERALLY DEFLECTING AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS, WE'LL EXPERIENCE INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RESPONDING LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS, AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, IT APPEARS A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 500+ J/KG MLCAPE AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY SEEMS TO REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THANKFULLY, AND THIS IS THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
AS FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORING
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWS WILL BE
INGESTED BY THE LLJ. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE EFFECTIVE
REMNANTS OF SARA WHICH IS MAKING LANDFALL IN BELIZE TODAY AS A
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. 1-2" OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 (INCREASING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT) WITH AMOUNTS LESS
THAN ONE INCH NORTH OF I-20. FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
POPS MAKE A WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SUBSEQUENT DIP OF THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF COOL, DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH GRADUAL WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND. WE'LL ALSO SEE FROST POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT AS WE
APPROACH THE END OF THE CENTRAL ALABAMA GROWING SEASON.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AS LAST NIGHT WHEN MOST TERMINALS
RECEIVED SOME FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM
WINDS. SOME CIRRUS ARE MOVING IN, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
COOLED A GOOD BIT. WILL GO WITH MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
FOG MENTIONED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BHM. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
LIFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT ANB/ASN/EET/MGM.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-7 MPH. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S
THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 43 75 58 / 0 0 0 40
ANNISTON 74 47 76 60 / 0 0 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 73 50 75 63 / 0 0 10 50
TUSCALOOSA 74 52 77 66 / 0 0 10 70
CALERA 74 51 77 63 / 0 0 10 50
AUBURN 73 49 76 60 / 0 0 0 40
MONTGOMERY 76 49 78 64 / 0 0 10 50
TROY 76 49 77 62 / 0 0 0 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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