154
FXUS64 KBMX 171900
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MID-NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN THE
RECORD VALUES WE WERE EXPERIENCING EARLIER IN THE MONTH, WE'RE
STILL VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO AN ALMOST EVER-PRESENT
500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE, THE ONLY CLOUD COVER TODAY ASIDE FROM SOME
SCATTERED CU OVER THE WEST WILL BE HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S REMAINS ON TRACK.
THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT LEAST BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN TIMEFRAME OF
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
I'VE INCREASED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT GUIDANCE TRENDS.
WITH THE EXTRA CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES AREN'T GOING TO BE AS
CHILLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN
THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS AREN'T AS PREVALENT, PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS AND LARGER
LAKES LIKE WE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON MONDAY, AS
THE POTENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WITH DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE AT 700MB. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS A
RESULT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE BY MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TUESDAY WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER-WISE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT, BOTH GENERALLY DEFLECTING AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS, WE'LL EXPERIENCE INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RESPONDING LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS, AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, IT APPEARS A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 500+ J/KG MLCAPE AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY SEEMS TO REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THANKFULLY, AND THIS IS THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
AS FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORING
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWS WILL BE
INGESTED BY THE LLJ. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE EFFECTIVE
REMNANTS OF SARA WHICH IS MAKING LANDFALL IN BELIZE TODAY AS A
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. 1-2" OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 (INCREASING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT) WITH AMOUNTS LESS
THAN ONE INCH NORTH OF I-20. FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
POPS MAKE A WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SUBSEQUENT DIP OF THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF COOL, DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH GRADUAL WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND. WE'LL ALSO SEE FROST POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT AS WE
APPROACH THE END OF THE CENTRAL ALABAMA GROWING SEASON.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD IMPACT SOME TERMINALS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS, AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR REDUCED VIS HAVE BEEN ADDED.
ALSO, DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
ALABAMA THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS KTCL AND POTENTIALLY KEET AND KBHM
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-7 MPH. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S
THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 75 58 69 / 0 0 50 90
ANNISTON 47 76 60 68 / 0 0 40 90
BIRMINGHAM 50 75 63 69 / 0 0 60 90
TUSCALOOSA 51 77 66 72 / 0 0 70 90
CALERA 50 77 63 69 / 0 0 60 90
AUBURN 49 76 60 68 / 0 0 30 80
MONTGOMERY 49 78 64 71 / 0 0 50 90
TROY 49 77 62 70 / 0 0 30 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...56/GDG
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