446  
FXUS64 KBMX 180153  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
753 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 753 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS ON-TRACK AFTER  
PERUSING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FROM THE PATTERN OF VARIABLE CLOUDS  
AND WEAK LIFT, THERE MAY BE AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF VIRGA ON AREA  
RADARS. ENJOY MONDAY'S NON FALL-LIKE WEATHER IF THAT'S YOUR FLAVOR,  
AS CHANGES ARE "A COMIN'."  
 
89^GSATTERWHITE  
 
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MID-NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN THE  
RECORD VALUES WE WERE EXPERIENCING EARLIER IN THE MONTH, WE'RE  
STILL VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO AN ALMOST EVER-PRESENT  
500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR  
REMAINING IN PLACE, THE ONLY CLOUD COVER TODAY ASIDE FROM SOME  
SCATTERED CU OVER THE WEST WILL BE HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD  
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 70S REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MOVE  
SOUTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK  
MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE  
SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT  
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT LEAST BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER  
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN TIMEFRAME OF  
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.  
I'VE INCREASED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT GUIDANCE TRENDS.  
WITH THE EXTRA CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES AREN'T GOING TO BE AS  
CHILLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN  
THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN  
COUNTIES. IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS AREN'T AS PREVALENT, PATCHY FOG  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS AND LARGER  
LAKES LIKE WE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON MONDAY, AS  
THE POTENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. DEEP  
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WITH DRY AIR  
REMAINING IN PLACE AT 700MB. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS A  
RESULT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY  
ARRIVE BY MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
 
56/GDG  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY  
DISCUSSED BELOW. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE QPF ON TUESDAY.  
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE  
GULF COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THAT LOW WOULD ACT  
AS AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR COASTAL RAINFALL AND SOME CONVECTION. THIS  
WILL SERVE TO LARGELY KEEP BOTH HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A WEAK  
WARM SECTOR SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THEREBY  
SUPPRESSING ANY FLOOD OR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AMOUNTS OF  
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20 WHICH SHOULDN'T  
CAUSE ANY ISSUES DUE TO OUR PRECEDING CONDITIONS, BUT THESE AMOUNTS  
ARE MUCH NEEDED TO KEEP THE PROGRESSION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT  
BAY. A ZONE OF MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF  
COAST, SO IF MODELS WERE TO INDICATE THAT ZONE SHIFTING NORTHWARD,  
THEN FLOODING THREATS WOULD BE REASSESSED. A SMALL AMOUNT OF  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER  
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE POOR OVERALL. AN EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA  
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FEW  
MORNINGS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.  
 
86/MARTIN  
 
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:  
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER-WISE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE  
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS  
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE  
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE  
ALOFT, BOTH GENERALLY DEFLECTING AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE  
SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS, WE'LL EXPERIENCE INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RESPONDING LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AND  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS, AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS,  
WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, IT APPEARS A MORE ROBUST AREA OF  
CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS 500+ J/KG MLCAPE AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE  
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY SEEMS TO REMAINS  
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THANKFULLY, AND THIS IS THE  
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
AS FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORING  
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWS WILL BE  
INGESTED BY THE LLJ. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE EFFECTIVE  
REMNANTS OF SARA WHICH IS MAKING LANDFALL IN BELIZE TODAY AS A  
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. 1-2" OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND  
SOUTH OF I-20 (INCREASING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT) WITH AMOUNTS LESS  
THAN ONE INCH NORTH OF I-20. FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.  
POPS MAKE A WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SUBSEQUENT DIP OF THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO  
SWEEP ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING A  
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF COLD ADVECTION  
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A  
PERIOD OF COOL, DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE  
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 30S  
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH GRADUAL WARMING BY  
THE WEEKEND. WE'LL ALSO SEE FROST POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT AS WE  
APPROACH THE END OF THE CENTRAL ALABAMA GROWING SEASON.  
 
40/SIZEMORE  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024  
 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY-MORNING FOG MAY AFFECT A FEW  
TERMINALS; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MID- TO HIGH-  
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT THE REGION. CALM TO VERY  
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FROM  
~15Z MONDAY ONWARD.  
 
89^GSATTERWHITE  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. 20 FT WINDS WILL  
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 5 MPH. LOW LEVEL WINDS  
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS  
TODAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S  
THIS AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH TUESDAY  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE  
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
GADSDEN 43 75 55 68 / 0 0 50 90  
ANNISTON 47 76 58 68 / 0 0 40 90  
BIRMINGHAM 50 75 61 69 / 0 0 60 90  
TUSCALOOSA 51 77 65 71 / 0 0 70 90  
CALERA 50 77 63 70 / 0 0 60 90  
AUBURN 49 76 59 66 / 0 0 40 90  
MONTGOMERY 49 78 62 70 / 0 0 60 90  
TROY 49 77 61 69 / 0 0 50 90  
 
 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE  
LONG TERM....86  
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE  
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