501
FXUS64 KBMX 180459
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1059 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 753 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY IS ON-TRACK AFTER
PERUSING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FROM THE PATTERN OF VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND WEAK LIFT, THERE MAY BE AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF VIRGA ON AREA
RADARS. ENJOY MONDAY'S NON FALL-LIKE WEATHER IF THAT'S YOUR FLAVOR,
AS CHANGES ARE "A COMIN'."
89^GSATTERWHITE
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MID-NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN THE
RECORD VALUES WE WERE EXPERIENCING EARLIER IN THE MONTH, WE'RE
STILL VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO AN ALMOST EVER-PRESENT
500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE, THE ONLY CLOUD COVER TODAY ASIDE FROM SOME
SCATTERED CU OVER THE WEST WILL BE HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S REMAINS ON TRACK.
THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT LEAST BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN TIMEFRAME OF
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
I'VE INCREASED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT GUIDANCE TRENDS.
WITH THE EXTRA CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES AREN'T GOING TO BE AS
CHILLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN
THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS AREN'T AS PREVALENT, PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS AND LARGER
LAKES LIKE WE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON MONDAY, AS
THE POTENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WITH DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE AT 700MB. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS A
RESULT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE BY MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED BELOW. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE QPF ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
GULF COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THAT LOW WOULD ACT
AS AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR COASTAL RAINFALL AND SOME CONVECTION. THIS
WILL SERVE TO LARGELY KEEP BOTH HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A WEAK
WARM SECTOR SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THEREBY
SUPPRESSING ANY FLOOD OR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AMOUNTS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20 WHICH SHOULDN'T
CAUSE ANY ISSUES DUE TO OUR PRECEDING CONDITIONS, BUT THESE AMOUNTS
ARE MUCH NEEDED TO KEEP THE PROGRESSION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT
BAY. A ZONE OF MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF
COAST, SO IF MODELS WERE TO INDICATE THAT ZONE SHIFTING NORTHWARD,
THEN FLOODING THREATS WOULD BE REASSESSED. A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE POOR OVERALL. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FEW
MORNINGS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
86/MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TUESDAY WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER-WISE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT, BOTH GENERALLY DEFLECTING AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS, WE'LL EXPERIENCE INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RESPONDING LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS, AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, IT APPEARS A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
CONVECTION COULD MATERIALIZE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 500+ J/KG MLCAPE AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY SEEMS TO REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THANKFULLY, AND THIS IS THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
AS FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORING
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWS WILL BE
INGESTED BY THE LLJ. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE EFFECTIVE
REMNANTS OF SARA WHICH IS MAKING LANDFALL IN BELIZE TODAY AS A
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. 1-2" OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 (INCREASING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT) WITH AMOUNTS LESS
THAN ONE INCH NORTH OF I-20. FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
POPS MAKE A WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SUBSEQUENT DIP OF THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF COOL, DRY WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH GRADUAL WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND. WE'LL ALSO SEE FROST POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT AS WE
APPROACH THE END OF THE CENTRAL ALABAMA GROWING SEASON.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
VARIABLE VFR CLOUDS CONTINUE WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH BRIEF OVERNIGHT/EARLY-MORNING FOG THAT MAY REACH A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS FROM
~15Z MONDAY ONWARD, PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD START TO AFFECT TERMINALS WITH RAIN
BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW TIMING IS JUST
BEYOND 06Z, SO EXPECT MENTIONS ON THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. 20 FT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 5 MPH. LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
TODAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES IN THE SOUTH IN THE UPPER 30S
THIS AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 75 55 68 / 0 0 50 90
ANNISTON 47 76 58 68 / 0 0 40 90
BIRMINGHAM 50 75 61 69 / 0 0 60 90
TUSCALOOSA 51 77 65 71 / 0 0 70 90
CALERA 50 77 63 70 / 0 0 60 90
AUBURN 49 76 59 66 / 0 0 40 90
MONTGOMERY 49 78 62 70 / 0 0 60 90
TROY 49 77 61 69 / 0 0 50 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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