195
FXUS64 KBMX 181855
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1255 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THIS AM, SATELLITE/OBS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED AREAS OF STRATUS AND
SOME SPOTTY VALLEY FOG. THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS FOR
ANY MAJOR INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE
IN FAR ERN AL CLOSER TO THE GA BORDER. ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
14-15Z. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ONE MORE RAIN FREE DAY, BUT WITH DEW
POINTS AND OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AHEAD
OF OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOOK FOR OVERRIDING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FIRST IN THE SW
COUNTIES TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOUR, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE E
& S IN THE LATE HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE AL COAST, BUT WE
COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE MENTION IN FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
MUCH OF C AL.
08
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A SYSTEM BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE
EXITING OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, A
REINFORCING (AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL) COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DIP IN THE POLAR JET STREAM. AS A RESULT, A RAPID
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH. MEANWHILE, THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS A BROAD REGION ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS SUCH, WE'LL
REMAIN IN A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 30S ARE FORECAST MOST
NIGHTS WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THU, FRI, AND SAT NIGHTS. A
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS THESE NIGHTS AS WELL, AND
THIS WILL BE A FITTING END TO THE CENTRAL ALABAMA GROWING SEASON
WHICH WE DEFINE NO LATER THAN NOV 25. I BELIEVE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRI NIGHT WHEN WINDS CALM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DECOUPLING/COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPANDING EASTWARD
WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA, BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL
LOCATION.
05
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
WHICH WILL RAISE MOISTURE VALUES AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 70 54 65 / 60 90 50 10
ANNISTON 59 70 57 68 / 60 90 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 63 70 55 65 / 80 90 40 0
TUSCALOOSA 65 72 53 65 / 80 100 30 0
CALERA 64 72 56 68 / 80 90 40 0
AUBURN 60 68 61 70 / 50 90 60 10
MONTGOMERY 63 71 61 71 / 70 90 50 0
TROY 62 70 61 71 / 60 90 50 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...05
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