638
FXUS64 KBMX 181917
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THIS AM, SATELLITE/OBS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED AREAS OF STRATUS AND
SOME SPOTTY VALLEY FOG. THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS FOR
ANY MAJOR INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE
IN FAR ERN AL CLOSER TO THE GA BORDER. ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
14-15Z. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ONE MORE RAIN FREE DAY, BUT WITH DEW
POINTS AND OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AHEAD
OF OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOOK FOR OVERRIDING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FIRST IN THE SW
COUNTIES TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOUR, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE E
& S IN THE LATE HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE AL COAST, BUT WE
COULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE MENTION IN FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
MUCH OF C AL.
08
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY, WITH DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
EXPECTED, WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR TO
THE STATE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL COOL EACH DAY, FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY, DOWN 10 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 30S EACH NIGHT, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND BRING A MID LEVEL
JET JUST NORTH OF THE STATE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE WEAK WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD INCREASE AND REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST, WITH THE FOCUS OF WINDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY, AND BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF, BRINGING LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL HELP BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
MONDAY.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPANDING EASTWARD
WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA, BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL
LOCATION.
05
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
WHICH WILL RAISE MOISTURE VALUES AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 70 54 67 / 60 90 40 0
ANNISTON 59 70 57 68 / 60 90 40 0
BIRMINGHAM 63 70 55 65 / 80 90 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 65 72 53 66 / 80 100 20 0
CALERA 64 72 56 69 / 80 90 40 0
AUBURN 60 68 61 71 / 50 90 40 0
MONTGOMERY 63 71 61 72 / 70 90 40 0
TROY 62 70 61 72 / 60 90 40 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05
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