435  
FXUS64 KBMX 182157 CCA  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
357 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024  
   
..NEW LONG TERM  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM 6 AM  
THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILED ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY  
WITH BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO  
WHILE A POTENT UPPER LOW WAS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST  
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS FAR  
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST STRETCHING  
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE COLD FRONT  
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.  
 
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST  
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH  
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM 5-10 MPH EARLY TO 8-16 MPH  
TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTH AND WEST.  
 
TONIGHT.  
 
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA  
WHILE THE POTENT LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE AND TAKES ON A  
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND  
WESTERN IOWA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS  
NORTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
POSITIONED EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
COLD FRONT WILL EXTENDING SOUTH ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
LOOK FOR CONTINUED INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH  
LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL  
BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST TO  
READINGS IN THE MID 60S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  
 
TUESDAY.  
 
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTRACT OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE BROAD TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER  
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW  
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT AS A FEW IMPULSES MOVE NORTHEAST OVER  
THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA  
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE TRIPLE POINT  
NEAR WESTERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA TOWARDS  
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SARA  
WILL BE ABSORBED AND PULLED NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH A WEAK  
COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MOVING  
NORTHEAST WITH TIME, MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.  
 
CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST  
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY 6 AM THROUGH NOON WILL  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH DUE TO  
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND LOOKS TO BE MOST  
SUPPORTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES DURING  
THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-20  
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN EAST TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
05  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024  
 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY, WITH DECREASING  
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL  
EXPECTED, WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO  
EAST.  
 
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE  
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR TO  
THE STATE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS  
WILL COOL EACH DAY, FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER  
70S IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY, DOWN 10 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 50S IN  
THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE  
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 30S EACH NIGHT, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND BRING A MID LEVEL  
JET JUST NORTH OF THE STATE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. THE WEAK WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY SHOULD INCREASE AND REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH EACH  
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST  
COAST, WITH THE FOCUS OF WINDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY  
SATURDAY, AND BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN  
GULF, BRINGING LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  
THIS WILL HELP BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY,  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY  
MONDAY.  
 
24  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024  
 
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS  
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A  
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPANDING EASTWARD  
WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
MORNING ON TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BEST  
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE  
AREA, BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL  
LOCATION.  
 
05  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY  
WHICH WILL RAISE MOISTURE VALUES AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING LATE  
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, DECREASING IN COVERAGE  
AND INTENSITY BY TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
GADSDEN 57 70 54 67 / 60 90 40 0  
ANNISTON 59 70 57 68 / 60 90 40 0  
BIRMINGHAM 63 70 55 65 / 80 90 30 0  
TUSCALOOSA 65 72 53 66 / 80 100 20 0  
CALERA 64 72 56 69 / 80 90 40 0  
AUBURN 60 68 61 71 / 50 90 40 0  
MONTGOMERY 63 71 61 72 / 70 90 40 0  
TROY 62 70 61 72 / 60 90 40 0  
 
 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....24  
AVIATION...05  
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