674
FXUS64 KBMX 190100
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
.KEY MESSAGES:
- A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDES MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM ROUGHLY 6 AM TO 12 PM.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY, SQUALLY WEATHER WAS ONGOING FROM THE UPPER TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY, A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ATOP ISENTROPIC FLOW SHOULD
CAUSE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM AFTER 12 AM/MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
FROM EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY TUESDAY FROM A COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC FLOW AND APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE
LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A POOR INSTABILITY PROFILE ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MU-CAPE.
SEVERAL MODELS ALSO SHOW A CONVECTIVE BLOB TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA, WHICH WOULD FURTHER (NEGATIVELY) IMPACT THE
STORM ENVIRONMENT TO ITS NORTH. IN ALL, THIS POINTS TOWARD A
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEING NON
SURFACE-BASED WITH MEAGER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. I'M
STRUGGLING TO FIND AN ONRAMP FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. THE
LEVEL 1 OF 5 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK COVERS ANY ERROR WITH THAT
ASSESSMENT. THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH A BAND OF TRAILING ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE, SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, WHICH
MAY INCLUDE PERIODIC DOWNPOURS SOUTH OF THE 59 CORRIDOR. THERE IS
A LOW (<30%) CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. WINDS
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNPOURS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY, WITH DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
EXPECTED, WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO
EAST.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR TO
THE STATE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL COOL EACH DAY, FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY, DOWN 10 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 30S EACH NIGHT, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND BRING A MID LEVEL
JET JUST NORTH OF THE STATE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE WEAK WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD INCREASE AND REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST, WITH THE FOCUS OF WINDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY, AND BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF, BRINGING LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL HELP BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
MONDAY.
24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z-09Z TUESDAY. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BECOME A CERTAINTY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, PERHAPS AS LOW AS LIFR BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HOLDS TIGHT. SHOWERS/RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY
WHICH WILL RAISE MOISTURE VALUES AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY BY TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 70 54 67 / 80 100 40 0
ANNISTON 59 70 57 68 / 80 100 40 0
BIRMINGHAM 63 70 55 65 / 80 100 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 65 72 53 66 / 90 100 20 0
CALERA 64 72 56 69 / 90 100 30 0
AUBURN 60 68 61 71 / 80 100 40 0
MONTGOMERY 63 71 61 72 / 100 100 40 0
TROY 62 70 61 72 / 100 100 40 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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