987
FXUS64 KBMX 201706
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1106 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THIS AM, SATELLITE AND OBS ARE INDICATING SOME LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG SCATTERED ACROSS C AL. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FINE
DRIZZLE IN A FEW SPOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
ERN 1/3 OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW 2/3 OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AM FROM THE NW WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM W TO E DURING THE
DAY TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP MORE THAN NORMAL
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RELAX BEHIND THE
FRONT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE A FEW MIDDLE 30S BRIEFLY IN THE FAR NRN
COUNTIES TOWARD SUNRISE. SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP,
FROST SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ATTM, WILL FORGO A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ONCE
AGAIN FOR THU WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THU. THU HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT
FOR AN ISOLATED LOWER 60S HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER, IT WILL FEEL
COOLER WITH THE NW WINDS.
08
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A SECONDARY PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
MID AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING,
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
WIDESPREAD FROST ISSUES. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW VERY SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME FROST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT CHILLY DAY,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW WARM WE'VE BEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 25MPH WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COOLER. "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START OUT IN THE 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WE'LL SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE PERIOD AS GRADIENT
WINDS RELAX. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS,
WITH COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES DROPPING DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL
ESSENTIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE MODIFYING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. A FRONT MAY TRY TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD
PRODUCE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. A BAND OF MVFR
CLOUDS IS BRIEFLY AFFECTING TCL, BHM, EET BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF THESE SITES BY 19Z AND BRIEFLY AFFECT ASN/ANB THROUGH 21Z
AT THE LATEST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM 10-20 KTS
TODAY, DECREASING TO 4-8 KTS OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLEAR
SKIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN THURSDAY WITH LOW-
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAINFALL WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY, WITH MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA COUNTIES. SIMILAR
20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 20S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 37 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 69 38 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 65 39 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 67 39 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 66 38 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 71 41 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 71 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 72 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...05
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