149
FXUS64 KBMX 270333
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THE FIRST SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT, SLIDES
TOWARD AND THEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO TUSCALOOSA AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AS IT PUSHES NORTH AND EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED IN THE EAST
AS EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO THE WEDGE THAT WAS IN
PLACE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE SOUTH AND WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 60S. OVERALL
TIMING OF POPS AND TEMPERATURES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
16
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
TONIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN OUT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES ON
A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE ARKLATEX AND MID-
SOUTH REGIONS. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
EASTERN LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME POSITIONED BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW
TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND WARM WITH TIME AS A SOUTHEAST
WIND PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WHILE
THE GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE 7-14 MPH RANGE AND BREEZY
AT TIMES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY.
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL DAMPEN WITH TIME AS IT
SWINGS NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION EARLY IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE MIDWEST
WHERE IT WILL OCCLUDE WITH TIME. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR
NORTHEAST IT MAKES IT, PARTICULARLY IF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS STRONG, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS NOW. WILL BRING THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT (THERE MAY BE A
SECONDARY COASTAL/MARINE BOUNDARY DEMARCATING HIGHER DEW POINTS)
TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER IN THE DAY BUT WILL KEEP THE
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ASSOCIATED MENTIONABLE HAZARD RISKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORECAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE
85 CORRIDOR. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS, GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING,
THEN EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP, THE MORE SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 7-14 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST.
05
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS, HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
NOTED BY A SOUTHERLY MOISTURE SURGE AND SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY
SERVE AS A FOCUSED WARM FRONT THAT WILL SEEMINGLY LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM
QUICKLY DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY.
A CLOSER DISSECTION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS SEVERAL
COMPONENTS TO CLOSELY MONITOR. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS WILL BE THE JET
STRUCTURE THAT WILL BEGIN NOSING INTO THE WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE INCREASING
WITH TIME AS THE JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
OF THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS OUR TYPICAL WINTER
SETUP. ALSO, TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXTREMELY COLD FOR THE
SOUTHEAST, SO IT WILL NOT TAKE NEARLY THE SURFACE HEATING AS
EXPECTED IN A MORE TYPICAL SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT.
THE MORE NON FAVORABLE COMPONENTS ARE STRICTLY WITH THE QUALITY
WARM SECTOR. THIS SETUP IS MESSY, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
UNCAPPED CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR AS
IT LIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
EVENT MAY END UP DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHEN DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
OF PRIMARY CONCERN. IF THE AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND CONTAMINATED,
INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE MEAGER AT BEST WHEN THE STRONGER JET
MAX NUDGES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND CERTAINLY IN
REAL-TIME.
17/KLAWS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
A WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DECK REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 9 TO 12Z, WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MOMENTS OF VFR AFTER
15Z, ESPECIALLY IN MGM, ANB, AND ASN, THE PREDOMINANT CLOUD DECKS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH TCL SEEING ACTIVITY BETWEEN 13
AND 15Z, WITH THE STORM POSSIBILITIES AFTER 18Z. BHM COULD SEE
RAIN AFTER 17Z, WITH THE STORM POSSIBILITIES AFTER 20Z. ANB, ASN,
EET COULD SEE RAIN AFTER 20Z AND THEN STORMS AT OR BEYOND 00Z.
MGM WILL LIKELY SEE JUST LIGHT RAIN AFTER 21Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL
STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VERY FEW
BREAKS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES,
ENDING ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL SHIFTING FROM
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 55 53 66 / 20 90 90 80
ANNISTON 45 57 54 68 / 20 70 90 80
BIRMINGHAM 48 59 56 67 / 20 90 80 80
TUSCALOOSA 51 62 58 69 / 30 90 60 80
CALERA 47 60 57 68 / 20 90 80 80
AUBURN 45 60 53 68 / 30 30 80 60
MONTGOMERY 48 64 59 72 / 20 50 80 70
TROY 47 67 58 72 / 20 30 70 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...16
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