242
FXUS64 KBMX 271229
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE (1/5 LEVEL RISK) THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, LOWER THREAT WILL BE FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL.
- SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY (1-3/5 LEVEL RISKS, BEST WEST) FOR LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS, TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
THIS AM, THERE IS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER AR WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING OUT SWD INTO LA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT SE ACROSS
MS TWD THE GULF COAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY CONVECTION ON THE RADAR TO
THE E OF THE LOW ACROSS W TN INTO MS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NNEWD TODAY AND BY LATE SAT TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AS IT MOVES NNEWD
TODAY, IT WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS C AL. LOOKING FOR DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARM/MOIST AIR TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF STORMS IN THE S/SW TODAY AND
AREA WIDE ON SAT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE WILL HAVE 3 SUCCESSIVE WAVES TO HELP SPARK
ACTIVITY. SHORTWAVE NUMBER ONE WILL SWING THROUGH TO THE NE THIS
MORNING TWD IN. A SECOND BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE C US
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE SW 1/3 OF C AL CLOSER
TO THE WARM FRONT. BEHIND THIS SECOND WAVE, WE SHOULD HAVE A
SOMEWHAT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR LATE NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
A THIRD UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THIS ACTIVE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO DIG INTO
OK/TX EARLY SAT SPREAD EWD TWD ACROSS AR/LA TOWARD THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE ONE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, BY LATE SAT, ALL OF C AL SHOULD BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THEREFORE, EXPECT MORE LIKELY CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AREA
WIDE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF C AL, WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL LIE.
08
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RISK WANING WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT.
THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND LARGE
HAIL.
MODELS INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THE START OF SATURDAY EVENING WITH
STRONGER STORMS INITIALLY CARRYING A PRIMARY RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS INDICATED BY MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EFF. BULK SHEAR AS HIGH AS 50-60KTS. AROUND THIS TIME, THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE
MID-LEVEL PORTION OF THE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET REALLY BEGINS TO KICK IN AFTER
6-7 PM WITH 50KTS OF 850MB FLOW NUDGING INTO OUR WEST THEN
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
ORIENTATION FOR TORNADOES WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND PROGGED EFF.
SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN RANGE
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS, WE MAY GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW MUCH
THE AFTERNOON AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE QUALITY
OF THE WARM SECTOR, AS THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION
WITH SOME OF OUR EARLY HI-RES SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME HAMPERING OF THE THERMODYNAMICS DUE TO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL. NONETHELESS, THE RISK FOR TORNADOES
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS WESTERN, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWESTERN, PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS TOWARDS TENNESSEE LEADING TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS AS A
BROKEN LINE OF MULTI-CELLS, WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, ENTERS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RISK FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT AS BOTH INSTABILITY
WANES AND AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WE WILL AT LEAST HOLD ON TO A
LOWER END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST UNTIL
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVE PERIOD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, AND FOR NOW WE DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER TURNS COLDER
AND DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS BECOMES CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF WITH DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
CURRENTLY WE HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS C AL. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER TO IFR DURING THE DAY AND IN SOME
CASES TO LIFR TONIGHT. MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT THANKS TO UPPER SHORTWAVES. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES WITH THE RAIN. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE SE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
COUPLE STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 53 68 58 / 80 90 70 100
ANNISTON 61 54 69 59 / 80 90 70 90
BIRMINGHAM 61 57 68 60 / 90 80 70 100
TUSCALOOSA 65 57 71 58 / 90 30 80 90
CALERA 64 57 69 60 / 80 90 70 100
AUBURN 63 54 69 62 / 20 80 60 90
MONTGOMERY 67 59 73 63 / 40 80 70 90
TROY 67 58 73 62 / 20 70 60 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....86/MARTIN
AVIATION...08
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