082
FXUS64 KBMX 271814
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE (1/5 LEVEL RISK) THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, LOWER THREAT WILL BE FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL.
- SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY (1-3/5 LEVEL RISKS, HIGHEST WEST) FOR
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM AND TUSCALOOSA TO NEAR MOBILE. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LINE HAS SLOWED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH
INTERMITTENT AREAS OF LIGHTNING WITHIN WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, A NOSE OF INSTABILITY MAY ENTER
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA AND WEST OF
MONTGOMERY. WITH STRUGGLES WARMING TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE
TO OVERCAST SKIES, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS
GEORGIA, THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA IS IN QUESTION.
NEVERTHELESS, A 1/5 RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS BUT ALSO ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, LEAVING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. WITH
SOME WIND STILL EXPECTED AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS, WIDESPREAD FOG
ISN'T A BIG CONCERN.
THE MORE CONCERNING ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME INTO
THE PICTURE BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A CLUSTER OF
DEVELOPING CELLS OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES INTO ALABAMA
AROUND DUSK TOMORROW EVENING. THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IF
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS FROM SATURDAY MORNING HANG AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AMPLE WIND SHEAR APPEARS POISED TO TRY TO
OVERCOME SUCH ISSUES, HINTING AT A CLASSIC HIGH-SHEAR, LOW-CAPE QLCS
SETUP INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH ACTIVITY INITIALLY MOVING MORE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE THE LINE ITSELF SWEEPS
EASTWARD, COMBINED WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AND A SECOND LINE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT, THE CURRENT THREAT TIMING HAS A WIDE BUFFER ZONE.
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE FINISHED IN THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL CLOSER TO 7-8 AM
ON SUNDAY. A CAVEAT TO THE SECOND LINE SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THAT WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE WAS WILL
BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY THEN, LEAVING THE GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT ANY
SECOND LINE OVERNIGHT IS MERELY AN ENHANCED LINE OF SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, AREAS WEST OF I-65 AND/OR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL IMPROVE LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
12
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RISK WANING WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT.
THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND LARGE
HAIL.
MODELS INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THE START OF SATURDAY EVENING WITH
STRONGER STORMS INITIALLY CARRYING A PRIMARY RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS INDICATED BY MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EFF. BULK SHEAR AS HIGH AS 50-60KTS. AROUND THIS TIME, THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE
MID-LEVEL PORTION OF THE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET REALLY BEGINS TO KICK IN AFTER
6-7 PM WITH 50KTS OF 850MB FLOW NUDGING INTO OUR WEST THEN
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
ORIENTATION FOR TORNADOES WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND PROGGED EFF.
SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN RANGE
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS, WE MAY GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW MUCH
THE AFTERNOON AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE QUALITY
OF THE WARM SECTOR, AS THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION
WITH SOME OF OUR EARLY HI-RES SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME HAMPERING OF THE THERMODYNAMICS DUE TO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL. NONETHELESS, THE RISK FOR TORNADOES
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS WESTERN, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWESTERN, PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS TOWARDS TENNESSEE LEADING TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS AS A
BROKEN LINE OF MULTI-CELLS, WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, ENTERS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RISK FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT AS BOTH INSTABILITY
WANES AND AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WE WILL AT LEAST HOLD ON TO A
LOWER END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST UNTIL
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVE PERIOD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, AND FOR NOW WE DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER TURNS COLDER
AND DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS BECOMES CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF WITH DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA, CURRENTLY IMPACTING TCL AND BHM. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN AT
EET, ANB, AND ASN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AT BEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT
ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE MAY DROP VIS TO
IFR AT TIMES AS WELL. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, CEILINGS WILL FALL
NEAR OR INTO LIFR CATEGORIES, IMPROVING BACK TO IFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR
BY MIDDAY.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
COUPLE STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 68 58 67 / 90 70 100 50
ANNISTON 53 69 59 68 / 90 60 90 50
BIRMINGHAM 56 68 60 66 / 80 70 100 40
TUSCALOOSA 56 71 58 67 / 30 80 90 20
CALERA 56 69 60 67 / 90 70 100 40
AUBURN 53 69 62 69 / 80 60 90 50
MONTGOMERY 58 73 63 70 / 80 70 90 40
TROY 57 73 62 72 / 80 60 90 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...12
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