969
FXUS64 KBMX 272355
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
555 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE (1/5 LEVEL RISK) THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, LOWER THREAT WILL BE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL.
- SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY (1-3/5 LEVEL RISKS, HIGHEST WEST) FOR
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM AND TUSCALOOSA TO NEAR MOBILE. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LINE HAS SLOWED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH
INTERMITTENT AREAS OF LIGHTNING WITHIN WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, A NOSE OF INSTABILITY MAY ENTER
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA AND WEST OF
MONTGOMERY. WITH STRUGGLES WARMING TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE
TO OVERCAST SKIES, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS
GEORGIA, THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA IS IN QUESTION.
NEVERTHELESS, A 1/5 RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS BUT ALSO ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, LEAVING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. WITH
SOME WIND STILL EXPECTED AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS, WIDESPREAD FOG
ISN'T A BIG CONCERN.
THE MORE CONCERNING ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME INTO
THE PICTURE BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A CLUSTER OF
DEVELOPING CELLS OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES INTO ALABAMA
AROUND DUSK TOMORROW EVENING. THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IF
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS FROM SATURDAY MORNING HANG AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AMPLE WIND SHEAR APPEARS POISED TO TRY TO
OVERCOME SUCH ISSUES, HINTING AT A CLASSIC HIGH-SHEAR, LOW-CAPE QLCS
SETUP INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH ACTIVITY INITIALLY MOVING MORE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE THE LINE ITSELF SWEEPS
EASTWARD, COMBINED WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AND A SECOND LINE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT, THE CURRENT THREAT TIMING HAS A WIDE BUFFER ZONE.
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE FINISHED IN THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL CLOSER TO 7-8 AM
ON SUNDAY. A CAVEAT TO THE SECOND LINE SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IS THAT WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE WAS WILL
BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY THEN, LEAVING THE GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT ANY
SECOND LINE OVERNIGHT IS MERELY AN ENHANCED LINE OF SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, AREAS WEST OF I-65 AND/OR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL IMPROVE LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
12
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES, DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO EXIT FAR SE FORECAST AREA IN THE
6-8 AM TIMEFRAME. AGREE ON THE DOUBTS REGARDING THE SECONDARY
LINE, WHICH MODELS FREQUENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR AND JUST AS
FREQUENTLY DON'T PAN OUT. MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME IS UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS..850 WINDS...LIFT ARE QUITE STOUT EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE
RACES NORTHWARD, AND MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING INSTABILITY. IT'S ALWAYS A BATTLE ON SCOURING BY THE
FIRST LINE AND RECOVERY BEFORE THE SECOND. WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW
MODEL TRENDS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND SEE IF EVERYTHING CAN
HOLD TOGETHER. ALSO CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE INITIAL LINE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE.
RIGHT NOW, THAT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A FAVORED SOLUTION, BUT
AGAIN, ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WARM
AIR WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATION.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN TO COLDER/MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A WEAK SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY
ON NYE, WITH NOTHING BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. TREND
CONTINUES FOR COLDER AND DRIER PATTERN TO START OF THE NEW YEAR
WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST.
02
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
TWO LINES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST LINE IS
ALREADY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THE SECOND LINE IS RIGHT NOW AT TCL
AND BHM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TCL THROUGH
1Z, BHM AND EET TIL 4Z, AND ANB/ASN TIL 5Z. AFTER THIS, SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 TO 9Z FOR THE NORTH. IF WE CAN GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY TO END FOR A LITTLE BIT WE COULD SEE
SOME OF THE IFR CLOUDS LOWER ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 2 MILES/ EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE IFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE AFTER 00Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
GENERALLY WET AND STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH AMPLE RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN AN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
10-15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 68 58 67 / 100 70 100 50
ANNISTON 53 69 60 69 / 100 60 100 60
BIRMINGHAM 56 68 59 65 / 100 70 100 40
TUSCALOOSA 56 71 58 67 / 80 80 100 20
CALERA 56 69 60 67 / 100 70 100 40
AUBURN 53 69 61 69 / 90 60 100 50
MONTGOMERY 58 73 62 70 / 100 70 100 40
TROY 57 73 61 71 / 80 60 100 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...16
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