925
FXUS64 KBMX 280445
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1045 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADDITION TO
LOW CLOUDS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THIS FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA BETWEEN I-65 AND I-85. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A DECREASE IN
THE ACTIVITY AND OVERALL COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY, WITH ANY RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNRISE
SATURDAY. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN REMAINS GENERALLY THE LOCATIONS FOR THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. SO WITH THOSE TWO FACTORS INTO THE FORECAST FEEL AS
THOUGH WE WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE. NO MATTER WHAT WE WILL BE CLOUDY WITH LOW CLOUDS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
16
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY (1-3/5 LEVEL RISKS, HIGHEST WEST) FOR
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS, TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
THE MORE CONCERNING ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
INTO THE PICTURE BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A CLUSTER OF
DEVELOPING CELLS OVER MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES INTO ALABAMA
AROUND DUSK TOMORROW EVENING. THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT IF LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS FROM SATURDAY
MORNING HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AMPLE WIND SHEAR
APPEARS POISED TO TRY TO OVERCOME SUCH ISSUES, HINTING AT A
CLASSIC HIGH-SHEAR, LOW-CAPE QLCS SETUP INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH
ACTIVITY INITIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST
BEFORE THE LINE ITSELF SWEEPS EASTWARD, COMBINED WITH SOME MODELS
HINTING AND A SECOND LINE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, THE CURRENT
THREAT TIMING HAS A WIDE BUFFER ZONE. ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE FINISHED
IN THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL CLOSER TO 7-8 AM ON SUNDAY. A CAVEAT TO
THE SECOND LINE SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
IS THAT WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY THERE WAS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
GONE BY THEN, LEAVING THE GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT ANY SECOND LINE
OVERNIGHT IS MERELY AN ENHANCED LINE OF SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, AREAS WEST OF I-65 AND/OR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL IMPROVE LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
12
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THREATS INCLUDE TORNADOES, DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO EXIT FAR SE FORECAST AREA IN THE
6-8 AM TIMEFRAME. AGREE ON THE DOUBTS REGARDING THE SECONDARY
LINE, WHICH MODELS FREQUENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR AND JUST AS
FREQUENTLY DON'T PAN OUT. MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME IS UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS..850 WINDS...LIFT ARE QUITE STOUT EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE
RACES NORTHWARD, AND MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING INSTABILITY. IT'S ALWAYS A BATTLE ON SCOURING BY THE
FIRST LINE AND RECOVERY BEFORE THE SECOND. WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW
MODEL TRENDS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND SEE IF EVERYTHING CAN
HOLD TOGETHER. ALSO CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE INITIAL LINE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE.
RIGHT NOW, THAT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A FAVORED SOLUTION, BUT
AGAIN, ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WARM
AIR WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATION.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN TO COLDER/MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A WEAK SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY
ON NYE, WITH NOTHING BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. TREND
CONTINUES FOR COLDER AND DRIER PATTERN TO START OF THE NEW YEAR
WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST.
02
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 TO 9Z FOR THE NORTH. IF WE CAN
GET A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY TO END FOR A LITTLE BIT WE COULD
SEE SOME OF THE IFR CLOUDS LOWER ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN 2 MILES. EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE IFR/LIFR FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE AFTER 00Z.
TRIED TO GO AHEAD AND TIME OUT THE BETTER THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
GENERALLY WET AND STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH AMPLE RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN AN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
10-15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 68 58 67 / 70 70 100 50
ANNISTON 54 69 60 69 / 100 60 100 60
BIRMINGHAM 56 68 59 65 / 50 70 100 40
TUSCALOOSA 58 71 58 67 / 20 80 100 20
CALERA 56 69 60 67 / 70 70 100 40
AUBURN 53 69 61 69 / 70 60 100 50
MONTGOMERY 56 73 62 70 / 90 70 100 40
TROY 56 73 61 71 / 50 60 100 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-
MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...16
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