822
FXUS64 KBMX 280933
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY (1-4/5 LEVEL RISKS) ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY WEST OF I-65, FROM
GENERALLY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY. THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES, WITH STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE WEST, DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE.
- PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOWEST VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
WELL THE FORECAST HASN'T NECESSARILY TRENDED IN OUR FAVOR FOR THE
SEVERE RISK TODAY. EACH HI-RES MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE COMING IN WITH
LESS WARM SECTOR RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. I STILL
THINK MODELS COULD BE UNDERDOING THE DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD
BE ABLE TO SPAWN SOME ACTIVITY FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONE, AND
AT THE VERY LEAST, WE WILL HAVE THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SO, I WILL SAY THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE HI-RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING INSTABILITY, BUT NOT
AS MUCH CONCERN AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP, SAY BY AROUND 3 PM AND ONWARD, WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A
LESSER THREAT OF A TORNADO, INITIALLY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 6.5-7 C/KM IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG EFF. BULK SHEAR
OF 50-60KT COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL UP TO
PING PONG BALL SIZE NOT ONLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS.
BY 6 PM TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEEPENING OVER AR/LA, GRADUALLY LEADING TO A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FROM NEUTRAL TO PERHAPS A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE ORIENTATION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP
NEAR 50 KTS, MAYBE HIGHER, AND STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO
OCCUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WE
MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
ARE DEFINITELY SHOWING THE IDEAL ELONGATED CURVATURE FOR TORNADOES
WITH EFF. SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 300-400 M2/S2 ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST. THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO CROSS THE AL/MS
STATE LINE AROUND 10PM TO MIDNIGHT WITHIN A ZONE OF MLCAPE RANGING
FROM 1000-1200 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO LINE-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES, SOME COULD BE STRONG IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST, DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL
SIZE. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD CAUSE TROUBLE AS WELL, AND THOSE
CELLS WOULD NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IF THEY DEVELOP.
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE STORMS ENTER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, THE
THREAT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LLJ BEGIN TO EJECT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT SOME
SEVERE RISK WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
THREAT ENDING AROUND 8 AM AS THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
GEORGIA.
ON A MUCH LESSER NOTE, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THIS
MORNING OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL BY MID-
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE RAIN ENDS, AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR NOW.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
THE LONG TERM OPENS UP WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY SETS UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR WILL WORKS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 0.5". ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON NEW YEAR'S
EVE. WE WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO
WARRANT A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL OF
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE KICK OFF 2025. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE NEW YEAR. FREEZING
TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 60-90% CHANCE OF TEMPS FALLING BELOW 32F WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 TO 9Z FOR THE NORTH. IF WE CAN
GET A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY TO END FOR A LITTLE BIT WE COULD
SEE SOME OF THE IFR CLOUDS LOWER ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN 2 MILES. EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE IFR/LIFR FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE AFTER 00Z.
TRIED TO GO AHEAD AND TIME OUT THE BETTER THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
GENERALLY WET AND STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH AMPLE RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND
3 INCHES, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY
MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TODAY WILL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS REGAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON NEW YEARS
DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 57 65 43 / 80 90 60 10
ANNISTON 66 60 66 45 / 80 90 70 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 58 64 46 / 80 100 50 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 57 66 45 / 80 90 30 0
CALERA 68 60 66 47 / 80 100 40 0
AUBURN 68 63 69 48 / 60 90 60 0
MONTGOMERY 71 63 69 45 / 70 90 40 0
TROY 72 62 71 45 / 50 90 50 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-
PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...16
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