985
FXUS64 KBMX 281813
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY (1-4/5 LEVEL RISKS) ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY WEST OF I-65, FROM
GENERALLY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY. THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES, WITH STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE WEST, DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE.
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF ALABAMA. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI
AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA, WITH AN EXPECTED LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERAL SEVERE LINE
SEGMENTS HAVE FORMED OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS, TEXAS, AND LOUISIANA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A
SINGULAR BROKEN LINE BY TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY, DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70 IN
A FEW SPOTS. THIS HAS COINCIDED WITH SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. MORE CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MAY BE HINDERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING CONVECTION. AS THE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS TO THE WEST, A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING A
MODEST INCREASE INTO TONIGHT. MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE LIKELY, WITH RESULTING
INSTABILITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-22 AND WEST OF
I-65. THIS SECTOR POSES THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
OCCUR, WITH SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH 200-300
M2/S2. WITH COLD AIR DAMMING HOLDING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, IT APPEARS THAT NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS
A LESSER, BUT NON-ZERO, THREAT. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN
TO BE PINCHED FROM COLUMBUS, MS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN, AS SHOWN BY
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST CAM RUNS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE LARGEST
RISK WILL BE WEST OF I-65.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END BY SUNRISE IN AREAS WEST OF I-65, AND BY
MIDDAY, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL HAVE CLEARED ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY WITH A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT, AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL IMPROVE LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE A TAD LOWER, ROUGHLY 1-
2".
12
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
THE LONG TERM OPENS UP WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY SETS UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR WILL WORKS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 0.5". ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON NEW YEAR'S
EVE. WE WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO
WARRANT A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL OF
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS WE KICK OFF 2025. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE NEW YEAR. FREEZING
TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 60-90% CHANCE OF TEMPS FALLING BELOW 32F WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SKIES BECOMING MORE BKN THAN OVC DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT TCL, EET, BHM, AND MGM. FOLLOWING THE
RAINFALL, CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO EVENTUALLY VFR
AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW.
12
FIRE WEATHER
GENERALLY WET AND STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH AMPLE RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND
3 INCHES, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY
MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TODAY WILL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS REGAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON NEW YEARS
DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 62 43 64 / 90 60 10 0
ANNISTON 59 63 45 66 / 90 70 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 62 46 65 / 100 40 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 57 64 45 67 / 90 20 0 0
CALERA 58 63 47 67 / 100 30 0 0
AUBURN 62 67 48 67 / 90 60 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 67 45 68 / 90 40 0 0
TROY 63 69 45 68 / 90 50 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...12
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