380
FXUS64 KBMX 282315
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY (1-4/5 LEVEL RISKS) ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY WEST OF I-65, FROM
GENERALLY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY. THREATS INCLUDE
TORNADOES, WITH STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE WEST, DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE.
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF ALABAMA. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI
AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA, WITH AN EXPECTED LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERAL SEVERE LINE
SEGMENTS HAVE FORMED OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS, TEXAS, AND LOUISIANA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A
SINGULAR BROKEN LINE BY TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY, DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70 IN
A FEW SPOTS. THIS HAS COINCIDED WITH SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THAT HAS HUNG OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. MORE CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MAY BE HINDERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING CONVECTION. AS THE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS TO THE WEST, A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING A
MODEST INCREASE INTO TONIGHT. MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE LIKELY, WITH RESULTING
INSTABILITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-22 AND WEST OF
I-65. THIS SECTOR POSES THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
OCCUR, WITH SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH 200-300
M2/S2. WITH COLD AIR DAMMING HOLDING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, IT APPEARS THAT NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS
A LESSER, BUT NON-ZERO, THREAT. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN
TO BE PINCHED FROM COLUMBUS, MS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN, AS SHOWN BY
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST CAM RUNS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE LARGEST
RISK WILL BE WEST OF I-65.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END BY SUNRISE IN AREAS WEST OF I-65, AND BY
MIDDAY, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL HAVE CLEARED ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY WITH A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT, AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL IMPROVE LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE A TAD LOWER, ROUGHLY 1-
2".
12
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
NO CONCERNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
LONG TERM AS WE TURN THE PAGES FROM 2024 TO 2025.
DRIER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL GET US INTO NEW
YEAR'S EVE DAY, WHEN A QUICK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN AL.
LOW END POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OUT OF THAT QUICK SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES RETURN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 25-35 DEGREE RANGE. DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
WEST IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
02
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH BHM AND
TCL. SHOULD SEE IT END AT TCL AND BHM BY 1Z. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN
MAY WORK INTO TCL AFTER 2Z. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN AT TCL BY 4Z, BHM AND EET BY 6Z, ANB/ASN BY 8Z, AND MGM
BY 9Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND THEN
RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE. RAIN SHOULD END AND THEN SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15G28 KTS WITH THE LINE, BUT ISOLATED SPOTS IF 40 KTS OR HIGHER
WITH STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WET AND STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH AMPLE RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 AND 3 INCHES, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS ALONG THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.
DRYING BUT MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BUT
WILL COOL DOWN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHES
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 64 44 65 / 100 60 0 0
ANNISTON 59 65 46 66 / 100 70 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 64 46 66 / 100 40 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 57 66 46 66 / 100 20 0 0
CALERA 58 65 47 66 / 100 30 0 0
AUBURN 62 69 46 65 / 100 60 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 69 46 69 / 100 40 0 0
TROY 63 71 45 70 / 100 50 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...16
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