293
FXUS64 KBMX 291143
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOW IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD BE DONE BY 4 AM. BEHIND THE LINE ITSELF, WE
WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
PROVIDING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN
THE NORTH. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF MONDAY, SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL.
16
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
DRIER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL GET US INTO NEW
YEAR'S EVE DAY, WHEN A QUICK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN AL.
LOW END POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL OUT OF THAT QUICK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
RETURN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 25-35 DEGREE RANGE. DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST IN A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES, SO WILL TREND TOWARD MORE
NORMAL AVERAGES.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. PRECIP HAS ENDED AT ALL TERMINALS,
BUT MVFR CEILINGS, AND PERHAPS IFR AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING, THEN LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING ANY IMPACTS FOR NOW.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED AT ASN DUE TO COMMS OUTAGE.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
AMBLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, SO FUELS WILL BE EXTREMELY
WET. DRYING BUT MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
BUT WILL COOL DOWN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHES
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 45 63 49 / 20 0 0 20
ANNISTON 63 46 65 51 / 20 0 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 63 47 63 53 / 20 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 65 46 66 53 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 65 47 65 53 / 10 0 0 10
AUBURN 66 47 65 52 / 50 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 66 46 67 53 / 20 0 0 10
TROY 68 45 68 52 / 20 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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