418
FXUS64 KBMX 291740
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AS WE
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER A NIGHT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING MORE LOW CLOUDS
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S TONIGHT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
12
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
DRIER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL GET US INTO NEW
YEAR'S EVE DAY, WHEN A QUICK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN AL.
LOW END POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL OUT OF THAT QUICK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
RETURN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 25-35 DEGREE RANGE. DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST IN A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES, SO WILL TREND TOWARD MORE
NORMAL AVERAGES.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH SOME TERMINALS STILL OBSERVING MVFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS
SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, WHEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR AT ALL SITES. VIS
WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AS WELL, POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN CLOSER TO MIDDAY.
12
FIRE WEATHER
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
AMBLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, SO FUELS WILL BE EXTREMELY
WET. DRYING BUT MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
BUT WILL COOL DOWN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHES
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 45 63 49 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 63 46 65 51 / 0 0 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 63 47 63 53 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 65 46 66 53 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 65 47 65 53 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 66 47 65 52 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 66 46 67 53 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 68 45 68 52 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12
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