161
FXUS64 KBMX 292341
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AS WE
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER A NIGHT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING MORE LOW CLOUDS
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S TONIGHT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
12
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE GENERALLY ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF C AL AHEAD OF A FRONT. WITH LITTLE TIME FOR
MOISTURE RETURN, AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WILL GET SOME COLDER AIR USHERED
IN FOR TUE TO FINISH OUT THE YEAR. RIDGING BUILDS INTO AL FOR
WED/THU. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS ON FRI, BUT AGAIN IS LACKING
IN MOISTURE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR NOW. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT ENOUGH MOISTURE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR SOME
RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD.
08
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
DRIER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL GET US INTO NEW
YEAR'S EVE DAY, WHEN A QUICK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN AL.
LOW END POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL OUT OF THAT QUICK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
RETURN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 25-35 DEGREE RANGE. DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST IN A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES, SO WILL TREND TOWARD MORE
NORMAL AVERAGES.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AFTER 6Z AND TO IFR BY MONDAY MORNING, THEN BECOMING VFR BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND STALLING WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MEANWHILE, NEAR MGM, LIGHT WINDS,
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AT 5 TO 8 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DRYING BRIEFLY, BUT MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE AREA WILL COOL DOWN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL AFTER A WEAK
SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT TURNING BACK AROUND
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 45 63 48 61 / 0 0 20 10
ANNISTON 46 65 50 64 / 0 0 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 47 63 53 61 / 0 0 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 46 66 51 62 / 0 0 20 0
CALERA 47 65 53 64 / 0 0 20 10
AUBURN 47 65 50 67 / 0 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 46 67 53 68 / 0 0 10 0
TROY 45 68 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page