465
FXUS64 KBMX 300501
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 723 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE,
ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER
IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WHILE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OUT. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS WELL AS
KEEPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT ELEVATED. CLEAR SKIES,
ELEVATED DEW POINTS, AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, COMBINED WITH LAST NIGHT'S RAINFALL, WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, THOUGH IT DOES INDICATE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, PERHAPS DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND. EXACT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. TOMORROW A
SUB-1000MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE OZARKS WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SSW WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. HOWEVER IF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANG AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEING QUITE A BIT COOLER.
32/JDAVIS
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE GENERALLY ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF C AL AHEAD OF A FRONT. WITH LITTLE TIME FOR
MOISTURE RETURN, AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WILL GET SOME COLDER AIR USHERED
IN FOR TUE TO FINISH OUT THE YEAR. RIDGING BUILDS INTO AL FOR
WED/THU. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS ON FRI, BUT AGAIN IS LACKING
IN MOISTURE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR NOW. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT ENOUGH MOISTURE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR SOME
RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD.
08
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
DRIER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL GET US INTO NEW
YEAR'S EVE DAY, WHEN A QUICK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN AL.
LOW END POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL OUT OF THAT QUICK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
RETURN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 25-35 DEGREE RANGE. DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST IN A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES, SO WILL TREND TOWARD MORE
NORMAL AVERAGES.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2024
LOW CLOUDS OVER MISSISSIPPI ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
THESE TERMINALS AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY AT TCL/BHM/EET.
AHEAD OF THESE LOW CLOUDS, RECENT RAINFALL AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING AT MGM AS WELL, BUT THIS REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE MONITORED FOR LATER ISSUANCES.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DRYING BRIEFLY, BUT MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE AREA WILL COOL DOWN MORE TOWARDS NORMAL AFTER A WEAK
SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT TURNING BACK AROUND
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 63 48 61 / 0 0 20 10
ANNISTON 46 66 51 64 / 0 0 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 48 65 53 61 / 0 0 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 47 66 52 62 / 0 0 20 0
CALERA 48 66 53 64 / 0 0 20 10
AUBURN 46 65 52 67 / 0 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 46 69 53 68 / 0 0 10 0
TROY 44 70 52 71 / 0 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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