694
FXUS64 KBMX 301734
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1134 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A SWATH OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG TO OUR WEST. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS FOG ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP BUT HAS YET TO TAKE HOLD. THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES
PROVIDES A MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCE OF VIS LESS THAN 1 MILE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND 0.5" PER THE LATEST GOES TPW
IMAGERY), ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP
CENTRAL ALABAMA DRY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO
EJECT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
TO WARRANT A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, MOST WILL REMAIN DRY.
COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY USHER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE NEW YEAR.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST, ADVECTING COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON NEW YEAR'S EVE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL,
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, AND THEN DROP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH
TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO START ADVECTING BACK INTO THE STATE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING. BY SUNDAY, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE IN
THE PERIODS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD BE MIXING OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AGAIN AS A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WELL, BUT PROBS ARE BELOW 30% FOR
THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, AND RH VALUES IN THE 30-40%
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 48 61 36 / 0 20 10 10
ANNISTON 66 51 63 37 / 0 20 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 64 53 61 37 / 0 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 67 52 61 37 / 0 20 0 0
CALERA 66 53 63 38 / 0 20 0 0
AUBURN 66 51 66 39 / 0 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 68 53 69 37 / 0 20 10 0
TROY 70 51 71 38 / 0 20 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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