630
FXUS64 KBMX 310504
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY AND MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS LEAD TO A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA
WITH SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST 15-25%
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY
6-7AM TOMORROW MORNING.
THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AL WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
FALL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
25/OWEN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED TO START
THE NEW YEAR. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO AL FOR WED/THU. ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES ACROSS ON FRI TO SCRAPE THE AREA, BUT THIS ONE IS
LACKING ENOUGH ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
ON ANY POPS FOR C AL FOR NOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND ON SUNDAY TO GENERATE SOME VERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UNTIL JUST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MON.
08
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST, ADVECTING COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON NEW YEAR'S EVE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL,
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, AND THEN DROP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH
TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO START ADVECTING BACK INTO THE STATE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING. BY SUNDAY, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE IN
THE PERIODS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR DUE TO CIGS TONIGHT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 12 TO 14Z AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, PERHAPS 15-16Z AT MGM. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT TO WESTERLY INCREASING TO 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT MVFR
CIGS AFTER 00Z TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSION.
40/SIZEMORE
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 62 36 51 / 20 10 0 0
ANNISTON 51 63 37 52 / 20 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 60 37 51 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 52 62 37 53 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 53 63 38 53 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 51 67 39 55 / 20 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 69 37 57 / 20 10 0 0
TROY 51 71 38 57 / 20 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25/OWEN
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...40/SIZEMORE
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