357
FXUS64 KBMX 160459
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1059 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU FEB 14 2025
- A FAST-MOVING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT, WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
FOR WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-20 DEGREES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS NIGHT MAY FEATURE A LONG-DURATION
FREEZE. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 0742 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
SEVERAL BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND TO A NEUTRAL TILT.
GREENVILLE MS RECENTLY GUSTED TO 67 MPH. A WEDGE FRONT REMAINS IN
FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S. MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ARE LOCATED CLOSER
TO THE COAST. A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SOME CAPPING WILL
KEEP US DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE AHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE AS IT REACHES THE
STATELINE SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. A FEW EXPERIMENTAL WARN ON FORECAST
MEMBERS INDICATE SOME CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A START TIME OF 10 PM FOR THE THREAT. CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ROBUST SIGNATURES OF DAMAGING WINDS DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW CAPE VALUES DUE TO A VERY STRONG 65 TO 70 KT 850MB
LLJ, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS, AND STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS IN ADDITION TO STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD
OF THE LINE.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR QUICKLY
DEVELOPING QLCS TORNADOES WITH 60 KTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LINE ORIENTATION FOR QLCS TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ANY HINT OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION WITH OUTFLOW SURGES, THOUGH EVEN
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATIONS COULD BE FAVORABLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE 0-3 KM SHEAR. WILL ADDITIONALLY HAVE A TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND MERGE INTO THE LINE, AND WILL BE
WATCHING CLOSELY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HIGHEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE THE 65 DEW POINTS WILL BE SURGING IN.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY OF GETTING WARNINGS SUCH AS A WEATHER
RADIO THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP, KEEP YOUR PHONES OFF DO NOT DISTURB,
AND CONSIDER GOING TO YOUR SAFE PLACE EVEN FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING.
32/JDAVIS
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEEPENING TO OUR WEST OVER THE
ARKLATEX. THE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED, SO RAIN DOESN'T LOOK
TO BE MUCH OF A HINDRANCE TO HEATING THIS GO AROUND, BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO KEEP HEATING UNDER CONTROL, AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE. NONETHELESS, 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD NOW THAT SURFACE WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH, AND EXPECT A BROAD PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF
500-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THAT DOESN'T SOUND
LIKE A LOT, BUT WIND FIELDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING
AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 9-10 PM AS THE
LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 60-70 KTS WITH EFF. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE. FORECAST SOUNDS INDICATE ELONGATED, CURVED
HODOGRAPHS WITH HIGH EFF. SRH VALUES OF 400-600 M2/S2. INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TONIGHT BUT, GIVEN THE DYNAMICS, WILL BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE WITH CHANCES FOR
TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING DISCRETE CELLULAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI
WHICH COULD TRACK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT'S A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN, BUT WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR THAT ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TOTAL SEVERE WINDOW FOR THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 6 TO 8 HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE, BUT THE
RISK LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO GEORGIA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 6 AM. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, AND A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z FOR
NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE FAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
AND RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES MAY SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHERS IN A COLD
AIRMASS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WILL HIT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER THE
DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
86/MARTIN
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEEPENING TO OUR WEST OVER THE
ARKLATEX. THE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED, SO RAIN DOESN'T LOOK
TO BE MUCH OF A HINDRANCE TO HEATING THIS GO AROUND, BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO KEEP HEATING UNDER CONTROL, AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE. NONETHELESS, 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD NOW THAT SURFACE WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH, AND EXPECT A BROAD PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF
500-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THAT DOESN'T SOUND
LIKE A LOT, BUT WIND FIELDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING
AS THE POTENT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 9-10 PM AS THE
LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 60-70 KTS WITH EFF. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE. FORECAST SOUNDS INDICATE ELONGATED, CURVED
HODOGRAPHS WITH HIGH EFF. SRH VALUES OF 400-600 M2/S2. INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TONIGHT BUT, GIVEN THE DYNAMICS, WILL BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE WITH CHANCES FOR
TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING DISCRETE CELLULAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI
WHICH COULD TRACK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THAT'S A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN, BUT WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR THAT ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TOTAL SEVERE WINDOW FOR THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 6 TO 8 HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE, BUT THE
RISK LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO GEORGIA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 6 AM. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, AND A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z FOR
NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE FAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
AND RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES MAY SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHERS IN A COLD
AIRMASS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WILL HIT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER THE
DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH
DYNAMICALLY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT WILL TRAVEL IN MORE OF A
SOUTHERN PATTERN. WHAT WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH WILL BE
THE TRACK OF THE GULF LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN PLACE OVER THE PAST RUN, BUT THERE
STILL EXISTS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE JUST A GOOD SOCKING
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
REMINDER OF WINTER AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD BETWEEN 6Z AND
11Z, WITH GUSTS BRIEFLY UP TO 50KTS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
30-35KTS WITH MEDIUM CHANCES OF LLWS AS WELL. CIGS WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, WITH MVFR LINGERING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
A SQUALL WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS CROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY, BETWEEN 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS. RAIN AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY END EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND WINDS, STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY, SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY. THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR WILL NUDGE AFTERNOON RHS INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 20S POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 53 25 50 / 100 30 0 0
ANNISTON 52 56 27 50 / 100 30 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 48 53 28 50 / 100 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 48 53 28 52 / 100 20 0 0
CALERA 50 54 29 51 / 100 20 0 0
AUBURN 55 58 30 52 / 100 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 56 59 30 54 / 100 20 0 0
TROY 57 60 30 55 / 100 30 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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